My prediction for global politics in 2023

by Adnan Pavel

(This is an opinion article)    

THE AUTHOR IS A SENIOR ASSOCIATE OF THE YOUNG FOUNDATION (UK), TEACHER AND RESEARCHER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX (UK), AN ASSOCIATE FELLOW (HIGHER EDUCATION ACADEMY, UK) AND MEMBER OF THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION, POLITICAL STUDIES ASSOCIATION (UK), THE SOCIETY FOR POLITICAL METHODOLOGY- CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES (UK).

We are already in March, and it has been no-brainer to realise that 2023 has and would be a traumatic year. Let’s start with Britain. It would a very difficult phase for the British economy and politics. I don’t think PM Rishi Sunak would be able to fulfil his economic targets. There will be more strikes and public turbulence. Britain must re-evaluate its position and dispense resources accordingly. The top priority of the UK should be its economic growth and renewing its alliance with Europe. Yes, the UK should continue supporting Ukraine but that must be proportionate, not provocative. It’s important to stay close to the USA but Britain ought to evaluate its economic situation and priorities it’s domestic issues. Britain’s current diplomatic position on Russia-Ukraine war is making Britain more vulnerable. Putin may not antagonise the USA directly, the European leaders including France and Germany are playing safe but it’s the UK that has been playing fast and loose in Ukraine. I think it is simply absurd for Boris Johnson, being no longer at the 10 Downing Street, to travel to Ukraine for photo shoots with Zelenskyy when he has already lost his credibility and now surviving for his political future. Johnson is a gifted politician, but he is not a modern-day Churchill. Neither the British political establishments nor the international community should any longer take him seriously. As David Cameron pointed “Johnson is a love affair for the Conservative Party that would always end badly”. It baffles me why the British people should continue footing the bill for the internal mudslinging of the Conservative Party! Britain is currently facing multidimensional threats mainly originated from poor economic performance and forecast due to Brexit and Covid-19 pandemic and political stability. In last 5 years, there have been 4 prime ministers. The state of the union of nations isn’t in great shape, the worn-out public services are crippling, “Singapore-on-Thames” is far from reality! 

Economic performance is directly connected with the political stability. The economic turbulence caused by the recent pandemic has been a destabilising factor for almost every country. However, I think Europe will see more political instability, rise of unorthodoxy politics and drift to far-right political parties more frequently. The Russian-Ukraine war that is happening just at the boarder of Europe has far more domino effects on Europe than predicted. I always think Europe is a great continent with perhaps far enriched history than others but with too many lousy and fickle leaders. Europe’s dependency on Russia for gas and on China for supply of raw materials has put it between a rock and hard place politically and economically.


Global hegemony is changing. The cumulative impact of Chinese economic and military rise, the mistrust and breakdown of cooperation between Russia and the USA, Europe’s failure to put a collective front means that we all must experience a deluge of political and economic uncertainties. Hybrid nations will experience such uncertainties disproportionately. It is not flabbergasting that in today’s multipolar world superpowers are becoming apprehensive to form more alliance with developing and under-developed countries. NATO is expanding its operation, China is forming closer cooperation with Russia, America is expanding its Indo-Pacific operations with its key alliances like UK, France, Japan, and Australia. We are at a crossroads; the ordinary citizens and poorer nations are suffering. However, too often we fathom who can bring all these power countries to a table. Can it be the UN?