Iran-Isreal tension; can it all be blown out of proportion triggering the World War-3?        

By- Dr. Adnan Pavel

Iran-Isreal conflict can very easily explode to World War-3 unless it is deescalated sooner than later. All eyes on President Trump and his next move. He can escalate or deescalate this situation further. So far, his statements related to Iran demonstrated strategic ambiguity. According to the US Intellgence community including Tulsi Gabbard; Director of National Intelligence, there is no concrete evidence suggesting that Iran was involved in weaponization of its nuclear programme. However, according to the IAEA’s recent report, Iran has amassed enough uranium, which was technically a step away from developing any weapons. Isreal has a small military but due to the help of the USA and its allies, it remains lethal and sophisticated. Nevertheless, Isreal doesn’t have the military capacity to bomb Iran’s strategically most important nuclear facility; the Fordo nuclear site. Netanyahu has decided to attack Iran now due to number of political reasons; firstly, he was preying on weak Iran. Iran has been extremely fragile and vulnerable for the last few years. The current regime in Iran is oppressive and unpopular among its population. The common people of Iran isn’t a fan of Isreal, but they equally dislike their own government and religious leadership. Iran’s proxies i.e., Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis have suffered a huge blow recently and lost their top leaderships. Iran’s ally Bashar Al-Assad was outstated from Syria. It has been humiliating for Iran and its supremacy in the Middle East is in tatter. Secondly, attacking Iran is a popular idea in Isreal. Although Netanyahu’s government has been facing criticism from its political opposition recently about the war in Gaza but its seems that most of the political parties in Isreal including Isreal’s population see Iran’s current regime as an existential threat for Isreal. Netanyahu is perhaps trying to restore his domestic popularity by attacking Iran. Thirdly, Nethanyahu was opposed to President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran and now is he trying to thwart President Trump’s ongoing negotiation with Iran to reach to a deal? It has been reported that President Trump removed his former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz as Waltz was coordinating an attack on Iran’s nuclear facility bypassing President Trump. Ali Shamkhani, who was leading Iran’s negotiation with the USA was killed by Isreal. This is a significant setback. Iran’s relationship with its neighbours including Saudi has improved since 2023 but Iran doesn’t have any bosom friend in the region and the Great Powers including the Russia and China may not directly involve themselves in rescuing Iran despite their close tie with the regime, however, the USA, the Uk and their allies may come to Isreal’s aid, if deemed necessary. President Trump has indicated that the USA wasn’t initially involved with any direct military confrontation with Iran, but he hasn’t ruled out any future direct military attack on Iran. This may be a negotiating technique by a transactional leader like President Trump. Trump cabinet remains divided on this topic, but the core MAGA supporters are completely against it. It is not in America’s best interest to entangle itself into another war. It is not in America’s national security interest either to engage in any military confrontation with Iran. According to various surveys, majority of the Americans are against the US involvement with Iran-Israel war. Pollsters think that it can very well be the end of MAGA and Republican majority if President Trump drags the USA into this conflict. The geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting rapidly, and this can trigger World War-3 if this uncharted territory isn’t sailed through carefully and meticulously. 

Dr. Adnan Pavel is an academic and geopolitical commentator based in the Uk.